23 October 2025
Bilbao Campus
Former US Ambassador and current Senior Vice-President of S&P Global Commodity Insights, Carlos Pascual, delivered the lecture “Navigating the New (Dis)Order in Politics, Economy, and Energy” on Thursday at the University of Deusto’s Bilbao campus, analysing how geopolitical, economic, and energy tensions are redefining the global balance. The event, chaired by the Dean of the Faculty of Social and Human Sciences, Ane Ferran Zubillaga, brought together International Relations students and those in the double degrees in Law and Business Administration.
Pascual, whose career includes serving as the US Ambassador to Mexico and Ukraine and holding senior positions in the US State Department, currently leads the integration of geopolitics, energy, and markets at a global level for S&P Global Commodity Insights, giving him a unique perspective on international challenges and the interconnection between politics, economics, and energy.
During the lecture, the diplomat warned that the rules, alliances, and trust structures that upheld the international order for decades are eroding. He emphasised that the fragmentation of global power, the political use of trade and energy, and the growing role of artificial intelligence in the economy are leading countries to diversify their dependencies and strengthen their strategic sovereignty. "We are witnessing the emergence of a more fragmented order, in which Asia, India, and the European Union play an increasingly important role," he stated.
In the expert’s words, the US economy remains strong, although it is marked by rising debt and the use of tariff tensions for political purposes. The technology race and artificial intelligence have become key drivers of economic growth, but they also pose risks of financial bubbles and national security dilemmas. In addition, the diplomat described how US trade policy affects the world: from tariffs on China and India to the strategic control of resources such as rare earths, which are essential for the technology industry.
Geopolitics, security and the technology race
During the discussion, students showed interest in Europe’s ability to regulate the major US tech companies and in how domestic policies in the United States affect international politics. Pascual pointed out that, although the EU can legislate on data protection or competition, these measures clash with the influence of companies in their country of origin. “Europe can take action, but any regulation will need to be negotiated carefully, as the United States will continue to defend these companies,” he said.
The debate also addressed the situation in Ukraine and the perception of Russia as an aggressor nation. In this context, Carlos Pascual emphasised that rebuilding international trust will require changes in leadership and cooperation between countries. “Currently, the existing institutions and security mechanisms are insufficient; a thorough effort will be needed to restore normality,” he explained, emphasising the complexity of protracted conflicts and their humanitarian impact.
Technological competition with China also drew interest from students, with Pascual highlighting that artificial intelligence is not just an economic challenge, but a strategic and national security issue. “Whoever leads this technological race will gain significant advantages. It is a complex process, and we do not yet know exactly how it will unfold, but both countries are deeply engaged,” he said, emphasising technological interdependence and rivalry as key factors shaping the new global order.
The diplomat also discussed how domestic changes in the United States affect its international credibility. The concentration of power, the dismantling of independent agencies, and internal political tensions all influence the trust other countries place in the United States, shaping its international negotiations. “What happens within the country has an impact abroad. Institutions and the rule of law are essential for maintaining strong and reliable international relations,” he concluded.
The conference concluded with an inspiring message for the students: “The international order is not set in stone. You, as future professionals in international relations, will help shape the rules of the world to come.”
Dean Ane Ferran closed the event by highlighting one of the expert's remarks: "As Mr Pascual said, 'individuals can change the course of history'. It is a hopeful message for a young audience like ours: if we push in a certain direction, change is possible. You too, whether in public administration or the private sector, will have the ability to shape the future.”
With this event, the University of Deusto has reaffirmed its commitment to critical thinking and global analysis, offering students the opportunity to engage with one of the most influential voices in geopolitics, energy, and international relations.
