28 May 2025
Bilbao Campus
Deusto Business Alumni and BBVA held a new meeting on 28 May focused on the Economic Outlook for 2025. The event, held at the University of Deusto Library, featured a keynote speech by Rafael Doménech, Director of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research, and was moderated by Mikel Larreina, Vice-Dean of International and Institutional Relations at Deusto Business School.
During his presentation, the speaker provided a detailed analysis of the current economic landscape, characterised by high global volatility, geopolitical tensions arising from the war in Ukraine, and uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. In this context, he warned of the risks posed by increasing economic fragmentation between blocs and the impact that fiscal and tariff decisions could have on inflation and demand.
Regarding Spain’s situation, the economist highlighted that growth remains solid, albeit constrained by a lack of productivity improvements. He emphasised that without reforms to enhance the efficiency of the productive sector, growth potential will be limited in the coming years. In this regard, he advocated for prioritising education, innovation, and digitalisation as key pillars to revitalise competitiveness, and called for political consensus to strengthen the confidence of markets and investors.
The subsequent discussion allowed for a deeper exploration of some of the key issues addressed. Rafael Doménech analysed the potential impact of a tariff increase—estimating that a 10% rise would reduce Spain’s GDP by two tenths—endorsed the report presented by Mario Draghi on strengthening the European Single Market, and highlighted the key drivers that could support economic activity amid a slowdown: exports, tourism, public investment through European funds, and the energy transition.
